Mendes' "If I Can't Have You" should arrive with over 25 million in airplay audience, 15 million U.S. streams and 50,000 downloads sold, according to building Nielsen Music data. Logic's "Homicide," featuring Eminem, should start with over 25 million U.S. streams, 500,000 in radio reach and 30,000 sold.
Mendes is seeking his fourth Hot 100 top 10 and first since "There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back," which hit No. 6 in August 2017. (Subsequent single "In My Blood" reached No. 11 in June 2018.) He should easily achieve his highest debut, besting the No. 24 entrance of his introductory hit "Life of the Party" in 2014.
The Hot 100 blends all-genre U.S. streaming, radio airplay and digital sales data.
Logic could land his second Hot 100 top 10, after "1-800-273-8255," featuring Alessia Cara and Khalid (No. 3, September 2017). Eminem is aiming for his 21st top 10 and first since "Killshot," which debuted and peaked at No. 3 last September. He would tie JAY-Z for the third-most top 10s among rappers, after Drake (33) and Lil Wayne (24).
Meanwhile, Lil Nas X's "Old Town Road," featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, should tally a sixth week at No. 1 on the Hot 100 with over 100 million U.S. streams, 70 million airplay audience impressions and 65,000 sold.
The top 10 of the May 18-dated Hot 100 is scheduled to be revealed Monday (May 13), with all charts updating on Billboard.com Tuesday (May 14).